Probability of outbreak extinction

qAny is the probability that n initial cases lead to an extinguished outbreak of total size j after any number of transmission generations (j includes the n initial cases)

Usage

pFinalSize(n, j, R, k)

Arguments

n

number of initial cases in generation 0

j

total outbreak size (>= n).

R

mean of negative binomial offspring distribution

k

dispersion of negative binomial offspring distribution

Examples

# With 5 initial individuals and negative binomial offspring distribution with mean R=0.2
# and dispersion k=0.1, gives the probability of outbreak extinction with a total number
# final outbreak size of exactly 5 to 20 inidividuals (including the initial 5).
pFinalSize(5, 5:20, R=0.2, k=0.1)
#>  [1] 0.577350269 0.172427286 0.087543022 0.051674765 0.032900372 0.021947874
#>  [7] 0.015118943 0.010663619 0.007659305 0.005581762 0.004116254 0.003065697
#> [13] 0.002302501 0.001741819 0.001325959 0.001014959