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Branching process outbreak simulator

Quantifies risk posed by individual importers of a novel transmissible pathogen to a generic population, with intervention effects. Scenarios modeled: novel introduction of transmissible pathogen by an infected traveler, an accidentally infected laboratory worker, a zoonotic spillover event, or similar scenario. Intervention scenarios for improved detection of initial case and for delayed mitigation after ongoing outbreak is detected.

  • Toth D, Gundlapalli A, Khader K, Pettey W, Rubin M, Adler F, Samore M (2015). Estimates of outbreak risk from new introductions of Ebola with immediate and delayed transmission control. Emerg Infect Dis, 21(8), 1402-1408. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2108.150170.

  • Toth D, Tanner W, Khader K, Gundlapalli A (2016). Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula. Epidemics, 16, 27-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.04.002

Work to create this software tool was made possible by cooperative agreement CDC-RFA-FT-23-0069 from the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.

Installing the package

To install the package, you can use the following code:

devtools::install_github("EpiForeSITE/branching_process")

To cite the package in publications

To cite the package in publications, please use:

## To cite package 'branchingprocess' in publications use:
## 
##   Toth D (2024). _Branching Process Outbreak Simulator_. R package
##   version 0.0-9, <https://epiforesite.github.io/branching_process/>.
## 
## A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is
## 
##   @Manual{,
##     heather = {To cite branchingprocess in publications use:},
##     title = {Branching Process Outbreak Simulator},
##     author = {Damon Toth},
##     year = {2024},
##     note = {R package version 0.0-9},
##     url = {https://epiforesite.github.io/branching_process/},
##   }