Weekly COVID-19 Forecast for Utah

Introduction

This COVID-19 forecast is published weekly. Using case data published at the Utah DHHS Coronavirus Dashboard, we calibrate an SIR connected model and simulate it with epiworldR to generate the forecast.

The forecast was last updated on November 14, 2024.

Overview of Observed Data

Utah DHHS publishes weekly surveillance data on their Coronavirus Dashboard. Below are the daily COVID-19 case counts from March 18, 2020 to November 14, 2024.

Epiworld Forecast

We calibrate a SIR Connected model using the above data and run the model in epiworldR. Here are the results of a single model run:

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SIMULATION STUDY

Name of the model   : Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) (connected)
Population size     : 50000
Agents' data        : (none)
Number of entities  : 0
Days (duration)     : 0 (of 0)
Number of viruses   : 1
Last run elapsed t  : -
Rewiring            : off

Global events:
 - Update infected individuals (runs daily)

Virus(es):
 - COVID-19

Tool(s):
 (none)

Model parameters:
 - Contact rate      : 2.0000
 - Recovery rate     : 0.3333
 - Transmission rate : 0.5000

Methodology

Here we describe the process used for calibrating the model and generating the forecast.

Acknowledgements

Here we acknowledge the contributions to the forecast.