Forecasting and Surveillance of Infectious Threats and Epidemics (ForeSITE) An Insight Net Center for Integration

Projects

ForeSITE aims to develop and implement a library of modeling and analytic tools belonging to three toolsets: Anomaly Detection & Forecasting/Nowcasting, Parameter Estimation & Scenario Modeling, and Economic Impact Analysis. We will establish a flexible, sustainable, practical, and replicable modeling infrastructure for a broad range of settings, including local health departments in rural locations, which have limited access to analytical support. Below, we have included a sampling of our ongoing efforts.

Measles Modeling in Schools
Measles Modeling in Schools agent-based simulation model

The purpose of this project is to build an agent-based intervention model for measles in Utah school settings to emphasize the importance of vaccination coverage and the impact of increased vaccine exemption rates. UDHHS hopes to be able to apply this model to inform the Utah legislative body to maintain or improve school vaccination policies.

Time Series Statistical Alerting Application
Time Series Statistical Alerting Application user-friendly anomaly detection app

This app intends to easily distribute the capability of time series statistical alerts to analysts in public health. While software tools such as these usually require a software developer or statistician, the goal is to provide an easy-to-use solution so that analysts in STLT Health Departments can leverage an adaptable alerting system their current capacities.

Economic Analysis of Employer-Sponsored Flu Vaccine
Economic Analysis of Employer-Sponsored Flu Vaccine cost-benefit analysis

Our cost-benefit analysis aims to generate Utah-specific estimates of the benefits to employers for maintaining a vaccinated workforce. Our economic team will model costs for employers implementing a workplace vaccination program compared to those who do not. Findings from this work may be used to inform Utah legislative decisions.

Anomaly Identification in Enteric Infection Reports
Anomaly Identification in Enteric Infection Reports use of space-time clustering

The purpose of this project is to assist DHHS in the application of space-time clustering methods to detect anomalies in reported enteric infections. The project will use synthetic data to identify optimal parameters, provide small area population estimates to improve cluster delineation, develop methods to incorporate specific potential sources of transmission (pools, water systems), and package these into easily-used tools for implementation by public health partners.

Identifying High-Risk Areas for Early Outbreaks of HPAI in Humans in Washington State
Identifying High-Risk Areas for Early Outbreaks of HPAI in Humans in Washington State risk mapping

This disease ecology project intends to develop a model to identify high risk areas for early outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in humans in Washington state. This project aims to produce a geospatial map highlighting areas where early detection of HPAI in humans is most likely to occur. The anticipated uses of this tool will be to inform targeted surveillance and response planning among STLT partners.

Automated Disease Surveillance Reporting
Automated Disease Surveillance Reporting R Shiny package

The goal of this project is to create a software program that automates the process of generating local health departments’ monthly disease incident reports. This work aims to delivers a basic system for quickly updating data tables, as well as an advanced system for automating the entire reporting process.

If your team is interested in connecting with ForeSITE, please reach out via our Contact page!